February, 2015 Elections; CEHRD Cautions Politicians   Against Violence

‘’The Centre for Environment, Human Rights and Development (CEHRD) condemns in strong term the widespread electoral violence- attacks and reprisal attacks,  inflammatory statements  in Nigeria ahead of the February general elections (of recent are the two pre-election violence where campaign Vehicles, Buildings and valuable properties worth millions of naira, belonging to the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the All Progressives Congress (APC) were damaged in Jos and Port-Harcourt respectively). We vehemently condemn this politics of violence and calumny as it can only portend danger in the coming weeks. As we hope that INEC will conduct a free and fair election come February 14 and 28, 2015, we affirm that the political parties, their wards and different actors involved must stop this wanton display of violence, and rather embrace peace in support of the work of the commission,’’ .

‘CEHRD calls on politicians to abide by the Wednesday, 14 January 2015 Abuja Peace Accord where 14 political parties including the APC  and PDP presidential candidates were among others who signed against political violence with such agreements subsequently signed in the states. We want to remind political party leaders, party supporters and well-meaning Nigerians, that politics is a means of enthroning custodians of the people’s common wealth, for the overall benefit of all. As such it should be played with every sense of decorum devoid of religious, ethnic and all forms of primordial sentiments.     

With the heightened political atmosphere, permutations, recent happenings and nationwide campaigns, we urge all Civil Society Organisations and the media to maintain the necessary neutrality and work towards the actualization of the Abuja Accord and other non-violence electoral peace acts towards achieving a peaceful and free and fair poll. The media and the CSOs should not be perceived as supporting a particular candidate or political party as this will only heat up the polity and spell doom for our nation, CEHRD said.

CEHRD advises that all rallies be held at a specified venue so that the police and other security agencies can provide adequate security before and after such gatherings. Party supporters should avoid clashing in the streets to trigger violence. All campaign must be done within the ambits of the law as the law prohibits the use of inflammatory languages and provocative actions or manifestation that can incite violence against another party or candidate. All must join hands to make this election a peaceful one and probably the best Nigeria will experience till date.

CEHRD CONDEMNS INCREASING HUMAN RIGHT VIOLATIONS; SEEKS PROTECTION OF RIGHTS OF CITIZENS

The Centre for Environment, Human Rights and Development (CEHRD) joins the rest of the global community to commemorate the World Human Rights Day, and urged the government of Nigeria to discourage all actions which violates rights of persons in the country.

The theme for this year’s world human rights day is: ‘Human Rights 365; emphasising the fundamental proposition in the Universal Declaration that each one of us, everywhere, at all times is entitled to the full range of human rights, that human rights belong equally to each of us and bind us together as a global community with the same ideals and values.

Although, the Nigerian Constitution prohibits torture and other ill treatment, there are still hard facts and figures showing that violation of rights of persons is still perpetuated. This undermines the integrity of our dear nation being signatory to numerous international human right protocols.

According to Amnesty International – Facts and Figures (September 2014), it is estimated that 5,000 persons have been detained and tortured since 2009.  Also worthy of note is the non-implementation of the seven (7) international protocols banning torture, which Nigeria is party to. It will be recalled the Nigeria, for 2 years still has a pending legislation in the parliament which criminalise torture. The presence of officers in charge of Torture (O/C Torture), in some Nigerian police station is a dent on our image as a nation. In the interest of the nation's integrity, CEHRD cautions ill-practices (torture) and other crude methods of investigation which violates citizens’ fundamental human rights. These practices remain illegal and contrary to constitutional procedures.

CEHRD notes with sadness that in the face of increasing violations of fundamental human rights, the government seems not to be doing enough to stem the tide. Government holds it as its constitutional responsibility to protect the ‘weak’ from those who wield ‘absolute power’ and taking undue advantage of their position. It should be noted that Nigerians on a daily basis experience torture, which takes different forms. such as- beating, rape, starvation, forceful eviction, electric shocks, choking with ropes, water torture, gun butts, rod and cables, forceful extraction of finger and toe nails with pliers, hanging of detainees upside down for hours; using their feet, and so on.

CEHRD strongly condemns the increasing negligence on the path of government and its organs for lack of responsiveness to acts and actions which amounts to violation of human rights. By allowing torture to go unabated, the Nigerian government is breaching its agreement under the African Charter on Human and Peoples Rights, International Nation Convention against torture and the optional protocol to the convention against torture, International convention for the protection of all persons from enforced disappearance, convention on the elimination of all forms of discrimination against women, convention on the rights of the child, the International Convention on Civil and Political Rights, and the Geneva Conventions-Common article 3, and the Second Additional Protocol.

Government should stop the violation of human rights in all its agencies as well as bring to book culprits of these acts. Our legislators at all levels should quickly pass into law the long awaited bill criminalising torture in Nigeria, as failure to do this, amounts to mortgaging the safety of our children to institutionalised violation of human rights.

The New Price Of Oil And The Looming Darkness 

By Patrick Naagbanton 

   
I have watched the Nigerian television satiric comedy called Fuji House of Commotion. The movie is the story of a local polygamous chief whose family or house is always in perpetual commotion. It is a comic tale of greed, disunity in the face of serious issues, incompetence, sexual irresponsibility, hopelessness and helplessness. The Fuji House of Commotion is a reflection of the larger Nigerian and global world. Since July 2014, crude oil prices have been dropping. The collapse of crude oil prices at the international market is biting hard on the Nigerian economy which depends largely on proceeds from the sale of crude oil. Reuters Like the absurd Fuji House of Commotion, the rulers of the Nigerian State responded by withdrawing monies saved in the Excess Crude Account while the Central Bank started selling our foreign currency reserve in different currencies to keep the Naira from collapsing.

Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Nigeria’s Finance Minister and the Coordinating Minster of the Economy was quoted to have said on Sunday, 16 November, 2014 that some of her government’s strategies are to reduce the budget in the coming year (2015). She also said  hat she would impose harsh rules on foreign travel and other spending by the government. They would also raise taxes on luxury goods such as cars, jets, and champagne. Nigeria depends essentially on the proceeds of crude oil sales, and the government is still battling hard to produce the expected over 2 million barrels per day to be sold in the international crude oil market for her usual survival.

The bulk of the crude oil production comes from the Niger Delta region, where organized illegal oil bunkering and theft are tremendously affecting our expected production quota. In the fossil fuel category, the country has since abandoned the coal pits in the Enugu axis of the south-eastern part of the country for the sweet black gold (crude oil). Sadly, Nigeria has slumped into the ‘fourth world’ because of her capacious and vicious mono-economy status. Ifeoma Okoye, the celebrated Enugu-based novelist and short story writer popularised the concept of the fourth world in her novel, The Fourth World, published in 2013. As a fourth world country, we do not have the technology to sell to earn any income and life for the generality of our people is still wretched and horrible. In the same way crude oil theft and illegal bunkering are rampant in the country, so is illegal logging.

Nigeria is one of the hotbeds of illegal logging in the West African sub-region. The situation presents a hopeless picture. Okonjo-Iweala has told us in clear terms about the austerity measures amidst the meltdown. Danger, fear, anxiety and tragedy hang in our firmament. Nigerians are among the few set of people globally who love to live fake, corrupt and very luxurious and obscene lifestyles – their forbiddingly expensive bombardier jets, cars, houses, jewelry, phones, clothes, etc. are now common global trademarks. Austerity is here again, but how can it be managed positively? That is the issue begging for dissection.The crisis is deepening and already manifesting-some workers have embarked on strike actions because governments at all levels (federal, state and local) no longer have monies to pay their salaries, arrears and allowances.

Just last week, the governor of Benue State, one of the north-central states, informed us that ‘by next year most states will collapse economically and otherwise because they will not be able to carry out their basic responsibilities, like payment of worker’ salaries, because of the nose-diving international crude oil prices.’ Government projects and other initiatives have been abandoned and more will be abandoned because of lack of funds.Apart from the looming economic crisis, there is also population crisis – the Malthusian nightmare is unfolding in the country, no matter one’s status, a family does not need more than one or two children currently, because of the dysfunctional Nigerian economy, driven by the casino supported by globalisation. Travelling around Nigerian communities’ on daily basis, one sees teaming armies of women, men, children and young people moving everywhere like tidal river flow in their fierce and desperate struggles for survival.

Armed violence and organized crime are on the increase because of the weak and unprofessional responses from ill-trained and poorly remunerated security personnel scattered into the numerous security agencies with overlapping functions. Religious bigotry and extremism, hopelessness, and despondency are on the rise, and these vices will all increase geometrically as crude oil prices fall in the international market.Okonjo-Iweala’s wand amidst the gloom is not sustainable. The time has come to face the challenges in a very pragmatic way. Nigeria is a secular state. Governments at all levels should stop wasting public funds on promoting religion and its related activities like sponsoring people to pilgrimage either to Jerusalem, Mecca or elsewhere. It is unconstitutional. It contradicts the secular spirits and letters of the state. Monies wasted on that annually can take care of security, health, job creation and others that require urgent attention.

The government must be serious about fighting corruption and punishing offenders accordingly. Monies and properties of those who have stolen public funds should be confiscated and use in a transparent manner to run the state.The government must drastically cut down on its spending. Some legislative and executive functions of government must be run on a part-time basis—the person participating should earn a moderate allowance not salary. Any state or local government, even federal agencies that prove to be economically unviable and unproductive should be scrapped. Wealthy citizens must be made to pay real taxes and should see evidence of their tax money transparently used by government. Citizens must be made to have confidence in the system, because if they lose confidence anarchy would be the consequence. We all still remember the recent Arab spring.In this seemingly complex situation, I often have times heard Christians – most Pentecostal church devotees, chanting the mantra, “it is well". Such a self-defeatist, self-deluding slogan is not the solution now that the hardship looms larger than life. This is not the time for a joke; it is time to put up viable responses and not these peripheral and phony ones to tame the looming darkness about to consume us. It is not well.

Naagbanton lives in Port Harcourt, Rivers State capital.

Who is Afraid of Goodluck Jonathan? (1)

By Femi Aribisala
Goodluck Jonathan must be the most feared Head of State in the history of Nigeria.

Some people say Goodluck Jonathan is “clueless.”  They would also have us believe he is a weak president.  If so, how come his opponents are greatly afraid of him?  People are not inclined to fear weaklings.  Therefore it is telling that Goodluck Jonathan must be the most feared Head of State in the history of Nigeria.

Since he was thrown up as president by divine providence, Jonathan has elicited the most vociferous opposition ever.  Every trick in the book has been thrown at him to stop him from becoming president and from continuing to be president.  At every turn, this has failed woefully.  The evidence indicates that the opposition is convinced that Jonathan is unstoppable at the polls.  Therefore, the emphasis has been directed more at preventing him from running for president and at frustrating his rule than at defeating him at the 2015 election.

Serial losers

Jonathan fought the 2011 election with a mystic that completely overwhelmed the opposition.  A cabal from the North insisted another Northerner must complete Yar’Adua’s term of office.  In the process, they turned the election into a regional contest.  A clique in the PDP decided to shortlist and select a Northern opponent against Jonathan, convinced that his defeat would be a foregone conclusion.

JONATHAN
JONATHAN
They rejected a former president, Ibrahim Babangida, and chose Atiku Abubakar, a former vice-president no less, and heir of the much-vaunted PDM political machinery of the late Shehu Musa Yar’Adua; to apply the knock-out punches to Jonathan in the PDP presidential primaries of 2011.  But surprise surprise, the election was not even close.  Jonathan not only defeated Atiku, he practically eviscerated the man.

Thereafter, the hope of the Northern cabal fell to another regional champion, Mohammadu Buhari.  On paper, Jonathan was no match for Buhari.  Buhari was much better known and much better hyped.  He had been Head of State some 30 years earlier, and had refused to leave the political scene thereafter.  He fought the election for the presidency twice and lost twice.  Then he had to face Jonathan, allegedly a “greenhorn.”

Again, the election was not close.  Jonathan dismantled Buhari with a plurality of over 10 million votes.  He even obtained 8 million votes in the North, to Buhari’s 12 million.  Then he practically cleaned up in the South.  From then on, the fear of Jonathan became the political wisdom of the cabal.  This has manifested in a number of shenanigans in the past four years.  However, the outcome of these has only been to strengthen Jonathan’s position as he proceeds to go to the electorate again in 2015 to seek a second-term in office.

Sour grapes

Having lost the PDP primaries ignominiously to Jonathan, Atiku became a prophet of doom.  He said: “those who make peaceful change impossible make violent change inevitable.”  Of course, the only change that is peaceful is the one whereby Jonathan either foregoes re-election or is defeated at the polls.  A Jonathan victory was, in the logic of Atiku, an invitation to violent change.

But one needs to ask the former vice-president this question: “Would the proposed violent change spare prophet Atiku, who was vice-president for eight years and who is alleged to have cornered juicy public companies from his vantage point as head of the privatization program under Obasanjo?”  Perceptions are sometimes more important than reality.  Therefore, violent change would also have Atiku as one of its primary targets.

For his part, the threats of Muhammadu Buhari during the 2011 election campaign led to widespread violence by his supporters in the North after he lost.  They went on a rampage; looting and killing; in spite of the fact that, by all accounts, the elections were adjudged the most free and fair in the history of Nigeria’s current democratic experiment.  By the time the mayhem had subsided, over 1000 people had been slaughtered in cold blood, including innocent National Youth Service Corp members, and some 65,000 Nigerians became displaced.

Undaunted, Buhari went on to declare in a statement made pointedly in Hausa in a BBC interview that: “If what happened in 2011 should again happen in 2015, by the grace of God, the dog and the baboon would all be soaked in blood.”

Phantom agreement

Having realised that by some political alchemy, Goodluck Jonathan is impregnable at the polls, the strategy of his opponents has been to insist that he cannot seek re-election, instead of making concrete plans about how to defeat him at the polls.  The Niger State governor, Babngida Aliyu, suddenly came up with the allegation that Jonathan had earlier signed an agreement with some governors in 2011 that he would not seek re-election but would only serve for one term; after which the PDP presidential candidacy would be zoned to the North.

This was curious at best.  Northerners had ruled the country for long stretches of 38 out of 54 years; at no time were any of them required to sign term-limit agreements.  But now that it was the turn of a South-South president, we were meant to believe such an agreement was extracted from him by Northern governors.  In any case, where exactly was this agreement?  If it existed, then it should be published for all to see.

However, Aliyu and his cohorts could not produce the alleged document, leading to the conclusion that it was nothing more than another ruse.  The president’s men were unequivocal in maintaining that Jonathan signed no such agreement.  Even if he did, everyone knows that there is no honour among Nigerian politicians.  Therefore, that gambit also turned out to be a waste of time.

Legal option

The next strategy was to contest Jonathan’s eligibility to seek re-election in the courts; on the grounds that he has been president for two terms already.  This strategy failed woefully.  Justice Mudashiru Oniyangi ruled from the FCT that Jonathan’s assumption of office after the untimely death of President Yar’Adua fell under the National Assembly’s doctrine of necessity.  The Constitution stated that no man could be elected president more than twice for a total of eight years.  But Jonathan has only been elected president once.

Justice Oniyangi said: “After the death of Umaru Yar’adua, there was no election or by-election, President Jonathan was merely asked to assume the office of the President in line with the doctrine of necessity. He was not elected as the President but was made to assume office by virtue of Yar’adua’s death.  Having exhausted the late President’s tenure, he sought for his party’s ticket and ran for the office of the President successfully in the 2011 general elections. He is therefore currently serving his first tenure of office, and if he so wishes he is eligible to further seek his party’s ticket through the party’s primary election and to run for office in 2015.”

Opposition threats

This called for yet another strategy, therefore the opposition decided to employ fire and brimstone.  Lawal Kaita, now of the opposition APC, said: “We will make Nigeria ungovernable for Jonathan.”  The objective remained the same.  These people knew they could not defeat Jonathan at the polls; therefore their primary assignment was to prevent him from running for re-election.

Junaid Mohammed fired one of the early salvos.  He said: “Quote me, if Jonathan insists on running, there will be bloodshed and those who feel short-changed may take the warpath.”
Senator Joseph Waku of the Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF) followed suit: “President Jonathan should not even contemplate making any move to contest the 2015 election because such will be catastrophic.”  Murtala Nyako, the former governor of Adamawa, echoed this, saying: “we must stop President Goodluck Jonathan’s attempt to go for second term, as that will lead to civil war.”

What has happened to Waku’s catastrophe and Nyako’s civil war?  These were all vain threats.  Who did Nyako have in mind to fight his civil war for him?  Since making these threats, Nyako has been ignominiously removed as governor of Adamawa State.  Nobody shed any crocodile tears for him.  On the other hand, his nemesis, Goodluck Jonathan has declared that he is running for second term and there has not been a riot, not to talk of civil war.  As a matter of fact, he has been endorsed as the sole candidate of the PDP.

Preparing for defeat

This means back to the drawing-board for the APC.  Since they now know they cannot stop Jonathan from contesting, they have started planning for their anticipated defeat at the polls.  Their position is simple.  If Jonathan wins, then they would claim the election was rigged.  That would be grounds for bringing out the thugs and area boys to kill, steal and destroy.

Thus, the APC started accusing the PDP of rigging an election that has yet to take place.  In a speech made during Buhari’s declaration of his fourth bid for the presidency, Rotimi Amaechi said: “We will punish these people… They are banking on using security against us. We shall teach them lesson. We will fight with our body, with our lives because there must be change this time.”

At the APC’s so-called Salvation Rally, Amaechi declared that the APC will form a parallel government if the 2015 election is rigged.  This is disingenuous because everyone knows that the only way the APC will not insist the election is rigged is if it wins.  Every election that the APC has won has been free and fair; but every election it has lost has been rigged.  In effect, the APC is already threatening treasonable felony if it loses the forthcoming presidential election.

Queried about this stand, Lai Mohammed, the Publicity Secretary of the APC said that has been the stand of the APC since the Osun State gubernatorial election.  In which case, had APC lost Osun it would have decided to create mayhem.  Lai Mohammed declared: “Let us remind the presidency, in case it has forgotten, that election fraud triggered a civil war in Algeria in the early 1990s, led to the killing of over 1,000 people in post-election riots in Kenya in 2007/2008 and fired a near revolution in Iran in 2009/2010.”
(TO BE CONTINUED)

- See more at: http://www.vanguardngr.com/2014/12/afraid-goodluck-jonathan-1/#sthash.QaFFJ4Fi.dpuf

First UK bus powered entirely by human waste goes into service in Bath and Bristol

Bus can travel 186 miles on one tank of gas

The first bus in Britain powered entirely by human and food waste has made its first journey today.

Bio-Bus, a 40-seater shuttle service between Bath and Bristol Airport, can travel up to 186 miles on just one tank of gas.

Gas is generated through the treatment of sewage and food waste deemed unfit for human consumption.

The annual waste generated from one bus load of passengers would provide enough power for a return trip from Land's End to John O'Groats.

The bus, which has spawned a number of appropriate nick-names, including the ‘number two bus’ , is being hailed as a sustainable way of fuelling public transport while improving urban air quality.

The gas used to run the bus is generated at the Bristol sewage treatment works, which is run by GENeco, a subsidiary of Wessex Water.

The Bio-Bus is powered entirely by human and food wasteMohammed Saddiq, general manager of GENeco, believes treating the food and sewage waste can produce enough biomethane to provide a significant supply of gas to the national gas network capable of powering almost 8,500 homes - as well as fuelling the Bio-Bus.

"Gas-powered vehicles have an important role to play in improving air quality in UK cities, but the Bio-Bus goes further than that and is actually powered by people living in the local area, including quite possibly those on the bus itself,” he said.

"Using biomethane in this way not only provides a sustainable fuel, but also reduces our reliance on traditional fossil fuels."

The first load of passengers on the Bio Bus will be visitors to the UK commuting from Bristol Airport to the historic city of Bath.

Collin Field, engineering director at Bath Bus Company, said he Bio-Bus was being launched at a very "appropriate" time, as the city of Bristol would become the European Green Capital in 2015.

"Up to 10,000 passengers are expected to travel on the A4 service in a month, which is available not only for airport travel, but also local journeys along the route through Saltford, Keynsham, Brislington, Knowle and Hengrove.

"With so much attention being directed towards improving air quality generally, the public reaction to the appearance of this bus on a service between a World Heritage City and an airport will further focus on the potential for this particular fuel."

Additional reporting by PA

Why we blocked Tambuwal from entering 

NASS —Police

The Nigeria Police Force has said the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Aminu Tambuwal, was blocked from entering the  National Assembly , Thursday, so as to forestall the breakdown of law and order  based on an intelligence report of the invasion of the National Assembly by hoodlums.

In a statement by CP Emmanule Ojukwu, Force Public Relations Officer, Force Headquarters, the Police said it promptly deployed its personnel to the premises to prevent a breakdown of law and order.

Heavily armed security operatives, Thursday, prevented  the Speaker Aminu Tambuwal from gaining access to the House to preside over the deliberation on the extension of emergency rule in the North-East.

The Police fired tear gas at the Speaker and other lawmakers  in the process.

The statement:

“Following an intelligence report of a likely invasion of the House of Representatives by hoodlums and thugs, the Nigeria Police Force promptly deployed its personnel to the premises to prevent a breakdown of law and order.

Consequently, the Police condoned the area and began screening of all members and visitors alike.

In the course of this lawful exercise, Alh. Aminu Tambuwal CFR, arrived the venue with a motley crowd, who broke the cordon, assaulted the Police and evaded due process and the Police had the duty to restore order and normalcy, using lawful means.

The IGP seizes this medium to warn all political actors and their followers to respect constituted authority and due process and to desist from the use of thugs to pursue their agenda.

The Nigeria Police shall continually apply all lawful means to prevent a breakdown of law and order in all segments of the society and shall apply the full weight of the law on any political actor who violates the peace and security of the nation.

Ag. CP EMMANUEL C. S. OJUKWU
FORCE PUBLIC RELATIONS OFFICER
FORCE HEADQUARTERS

The Impending Betrayal of Muhammadu Buhari

By Femi Aribisala

The 2015 election will likely be, to all intents and purposes, a contest between two PDP politicians.

When Muhammadu Buhari ran for president in 2011, he made a solemn pledge to Nigerians: “This campaign is the third and last one for me. I will not offer myself again for election into the office of president.” Buhari was persuaded to break this pledge because Bola Tinubu made him an offer he could not refuse. He would merge his ACN party with Buhari’s CPC party. Tinubu’s putative South-West strength would be combined with Buhari’s mythical North-West supremacy. The result of this alchemy would be politically unstoppable: next stop Aso Rock!

File photo: CPC National leader, Gen. Mohammed Buhari discussing with National Leader of ACN, Bola Tinubu at a meeting in Abuja

However, this plan started to unravel soon after the marriage and the honeymoon. Overwhelmingly, Nigerian public opinion rejected the idea of a Muslim/Muslim presidential ticket; effectively short-circuiting all delusions of a dream Buhari/Tinubu ticket. With APC’s nerve-wracking loss in its presumed stronghold of Ekiti, and with it only able to eke out a victory in its Osun backyard, and with Mimiko’s defection in Ondo bringing that state back to the ambit of the PDP, Tinubu’s much-vaunted strength in the South-West became more fiction than fact.

Fourth coming of Buhari

If the door was slammed shut to a possible vice-presidency, Tinubu still has the plan B of nominating a disciple as Buhari’s vice-presidential running-mate. Thus, when Buhari finally declared his candidature for president for a marathon fourth time at Eagle Square, Abuja, Tinubu’s ACN brigadiers were there in full regalia to give him conspicuous moral support. The wily Asiwaju himself was absent, perhaps in order to seem an honest broker among the APC presidential gladiators. Nevertheless, he was suitably represented by his Senator wife, Oluremi Tinubu. Other ACN timber and caliber, including Babatunde Fashola of Lagos, were also in attendance.

However, rather than crate an unstoppable momentum, Buhari’s formal declaration only seemed to have concentrated minds about his chances. The prognosis was inauspicious. There would be no good luck in Buhari’s fourth outing. The man is simply politically unelectable as Nigeria’s president. Some of his turn-coat political allies always feared this. For example, Nasir El-Rufai, who now virtually operates as Buhari’s “chief of staff,” observed just a few years back that Buhari remains “perpetually unelectable” as a result of his “insensitivity to Nigeria’s diversity and his parochial focus.”

Buhari’s declared candidacy re-awakened old angst about his cynical political antecedents, and it made many reappraise his chances more realistically, now that his candidature was beyond conjecture. The conclusion remains the same. Buhari has die-hard Hausa-Fulani support in the North. But he has even more dyed-in-the-wool opposition in most other parts of the federation. His core Northern support is unlikely to translate yet again to victory at the centre, even with the promissory note of Tinubu’s fading ACN support in the South-West.

Back to the supermarket

Any right-thinking person knows that Buhari is not the type of man to allow Tinubu to become the king behind his presidential throne. Therefore, it did not take long for the Tinubu mafia to start shopping for a new candidate with much less political baggage than Buhari. Indeed, the writing is on the wall that they are now more than likely to ditch Buhari in order to pitch their tent with some other, more malleable, APC presidential hopeful.

One likely choice is embattled Speaker, Aminu Tambuwal, who finally announced his divorce from the PDP this month, after committing adultery with the opposition for the better part of four years. Tambuwal had his eyes on the position of Governor of Sokoto State. But in a dramatic turnaround, he has now been persuaded to pick up the nomination form for the APC presidential contest.

Suddenly, the Tinubu brigadiers are now saying Buhari is too old to be president. Indeed, if elected, he would be Nigeria’s oldest president at 73. If he runs successfully for two terms, he would still be president at 81. The question-mark of Buhari’s age was hardly a hidden secret until now. It is just that, in the treacherous terrain of Nigerian politics, it provides a ready-made excuse for ditching him.

Fashola, who was there to support Buhari at his Eagle Square declaration, now says what Nigeria needs are young leaders and not geriatrics: “When 40-year olds are now leading nations and our 40-year olds can’t even get to the Senate, they can’t even become governors. Are we really preparing this generation for the future? Those are the issues really. We cannot point to success in other countries and refuse to do what those people are doing to get things right.” This is a coded way of saying Buhari is now way too old for Aso Rock.

Machiavellian politics

Politics is a treacherous business. Buhari should know this by now. He himself was treacherous in being part of a gang of military officers that seized power illegally from a democratically-elected government through the barrel of a gun. He was then, in turn, treacherously overthrown by his own mates. Buhari should know he is dealing with politicians seasoned in betrayal. Indeed, duplicity is the stuff politics and politicians are made of. In politics, everybody stabs everybody in the back. Therefore, everybody should expect to be stabbed in the back.

Asked if he would back Buhari if Buhari wins the nomination for the APC ticket, Atiku told everyone he would easily stab Buhari in the back; without seeming to realise it. He said: “I think I have proved that I am a pragmatic politician. Recall that in 2010 when I failed to get the PDP ticket against President Jonathan, I and others went to try to bring about an electoral alliance between the CPC and ACN.” Atiku’s “pragmatism” is the stuff of treachery. He failed in the PDP so he promptly switched to create an alliance between two other opposition parties. The bell tolls for the APC.

Nuhu Ribadu, as EFCC chairman, named Bola Tinubu as public enemy number one. But then he turned around to become the anointed presidential candidate of Tinubu’s ACN party. This did not prevent Tinubu from stabbing him in the back. Tinubu entered into a last minute deal with Buhari of the CPC. Then again, he entered into another suspected backroom deal with Goodluck Jonathan and the PDP. But there was payback time for Ribadu. Ribadu was part of the APC merger. But then he chose his time to ditch Tinubu and the APC for the PDP.

Some of us have long maintained that Buhari is a political neophyte. We have had cause to warn him that nobody wins the nomination of a political party like the APC, laden with corrupt politicians; by saying he will fight corruption if elected. Buhari’s anti-corruption hyperbole is part of what is responsible for the buyers-remorse his presidential bid is already experiencing.

Pocket infrastructure

Without the backing of the Tinubu brigade, Buhari does not have a prayer in getting the APC ticket. His lack of political know-how is going to be a major handicap. He is up against people like Atiku Abubakar; seasoned wheeler-dealer politicians who know how to arm-twist convention delegates. Buhari, on the other hand, has never had to fight to get a party’s nomination. Instead, parties have been formed around his presidential ambitions.

Atiku, in particular, has haggled and wrangled through many nomination conventions since the early 1990s. Moreover, he has a war-chest of naira bank-notes with which to grease the process. But Buhari, the man who claims he had to take a bank loan in order to buy the APC presidential nomination papers, is going to have a difficult time convincing APC delegates to pitch their tent with him without providing pocket infrastructure. Buhari’s approach is not the realistic way to run for president in today’s federal republic of Nigeria.

The imminent ditching of Buhari by Tinubu means the forthcoming APC convention to choose the party’s presidential candidate is going to be a bloodbath. It is really going to be ugly. There will be dead bodies strewn all over the convention floor. Dogs and baboons will surely be soaked in blood. With its do-or-die politicians fighting to finish on the eve of the February elections, the APC will soon provide a textbook case of how not to campaign against an established party like the PDP in Nigeria.

Buhari’s talakawa supporters, who caused mayhem when he lost the last presidential election, will not take kindly to his likely defeat at the APC primaries. If Buhari is rejected, he would be humiliated. It would have been better for him not to have run. Don’t buy all the pious talk that the losers will support the winner; it is not going to happen. Even if Buhari were to decide to be diplomatic about his defeat, his incendiary supporters don’t have the word diplomacy in their vocabulary.

Catch-22

The APC is caught in a Catch-22. If it fields Buhari, it will fail at the polls under the weight of his previous political bag and baggage. If it rejects Buhari, all reliance on his mystical 12 million votes will go up in smoke. Tambuwal, Kwankwaso or Atiku cannot replicate those votes. They have neither Buhari’s hype nor his charisma. With Buhari out of the reckoning, many of his disgruntled supporters would rather riot than vote. The APC itself would implode under the weight of its own internal contradictions. This is the anti-climax to all the hue and cry about the 2015 election that is now in the cards.

The ditching of Buhari would open a clear pathway for Atiku; the politician’s politician and Aminu Tambuwal, the dark horse. Atiku’s dismal performance in previous polls is eloquent testimony that his presidential hopes are a pie in the sky. Tambuwal in the APC ticket would be even worse than the last showing of Nuhu Ribadu of the ACN, who was even better-known nationally than Tambuwal.

All these shenanigans means the 2015 election will likely be, to all intents and purposes, a contest between two PDP politicians. The APC that boasts to be an alternative to the PDP is likely to end up with a former PDP member as its presidential candidate. That is change we can certainly do without.

- See more at: http://www.vanguardngr.com/2014/11/impending-betrayal-muhammadu-buhari-2/#sthash.cKCWAYDK.dpuf

Failed rigging plot and 30,000 polling 

units: Jega threatens southern commissioners

By Jide Ajani

CAVEAT: The expose on INEC is not about personalities; but about the need to ensure that an enduring process based on equity and fairness is bestowed on the nation.

At a time when Nigerians were just heaving a sigh of relief that, at last, Professor Attahiru Jega, National Chairman, Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, yielded to the voice of reason by suspending the controversial allocation of the additional 30,000 Polling Units, PUs, there are strong indications that there is yet no retreat no surrender on the part of those pushing an agenda to use INEC as an instrument of rigging next year’s general elections. This fresh discovery by Sunday Vanguard is going to the wrought through the instrumentality of the distribution and allocation of voting materials on the day of election (read logistics).  That is not all.  The main drivers of the Commission are also set to redeploy Resident Electoral Commissioners, RECs, of northern origin to the South to handle the 2015 elections because of the belief that some RECs in the South did not go along with the disguised rigging plot based on the lopsided allocation of the PUs. Already, Jega has sent out a threat to the RECs in the South.

Professor Attahiru Jega, National Chairman, Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, has issued a query laden with an ultimatum to Resident Electoral Commissioners, RECs, in some southern states of Nigeria. This is not unconnected with the failed attempt by some individuals at the Commission, who misled its Chairman, to create additional 30,000 Polling Units, PUs, which were then shared in a most bizarre manner, giving the North over 21,000 and allocating a little over 8,000 to the entire South of Nigeria. A copy of the query, in the possession of Sunday Vanguard, is seething with rage. Issued on November 11, 2014 – the day the Commission bowed to national pressure on the lopsided allocation of the PUs – it was signed by Jega himself.

Dependable sources at the INEC Zambezi Street headquarters in the Federal Capital Territory, FCT, Abuja, disclosed that “shortly after Tuesday’s stormy meeting, the Turks who have remained adamant in their own vision and mission of how next year’s election should be determined, made the Chairman understand that he needed to demonstrate that he was in charge”. How the man believed to be cerebral, energetic and visionary as well as integrity-filled allowed himself to become a tool in this unfolding drama may be a mystery psychologists would have to conduct a research into.

The query was titled, ‘QUERY FOR REFUSAL TO SUBMIT REPORTS ON THE IMPLEMENTATION OF RECONFIGURATION OF POLLING UNIT STRUCTURE AND CREATION OF ADDITIONAL POLLING UNITS’.

It read: “The Commission, by letter dated 16th October 2014, directed all Resident Electoral Commissioners to submit your respective reports on the reconfiguration of Polling Units structure and creation of Polling Units on or before 30th October, 2014. “At the Commission Meeting today, 11th November 2014, it was observed that you have refused, failed or neglected to comply with the above directive within the deadline given or since then”. That was not all. The query then set an ultimatum as follows:
“The Commission has directed that you explain, in writing, the reasons for your conduct within 7 days from the date of this letter.

“Yours sincerely,
“Professor Attahiru M. Jega, OFR Chairman.”

For those who may not have been following the reported hidden agenda in INEC, the “reports on the reconfiguration of Polling Units structure and creation of Polling Units”, which Jega referred to in his query are nothing more than the warped allocation that an INEC Commissioner in Abuja described to Sunday Vanguard as “meaningless and ungodly”. Indeed, the said memo was issued after an inconclusive meeting on how to proceed.  The memo itself, sources further disclosed, did not set out any particular criteria on how to establish the PUs but, rather curiously, expected the RECs to fashion out the execution of an agenda they are not a part of. Interestingly, the RECs in the North carried out “their master’s wish”. However, because the agenda was meant to peddle false altruism hinged on a supposed need to get PUs closer to the electorate, daylight came upon Jega’s magic.

HOW INEC BROKE THE LAW

INEC is in breach of the law. Section 42 of the Electoral Act is the legal basis for the creation/allocation of units. The Section specifically refers to Registration Areas (RAs) as the basis for creating PUs. The creation of new PUs on state basis is faulty and contrary to the law. For the purpose of clarity, Section 42 states: – “The Commission shall establish sufficient number of Polling Units in each registration area and shall allot voters to such Polling Units”. Therefore, INEC has no legal basis for proposing to use criteria such as the unexplainable ratio of 85%,15% as well as  additional 121 polling units to all states on the basis of equality of state because where the Constitution stipulated equality of state such as three senatorial districts, it was clearly written.

Not using the RAs as prescribed by law led to the now suspended inequitable and arbitrary allocation of PUs. There are 8,809 RAs in Nigeria, of which 4,611 (52%) are in the North and FCT, and 4,198 (48%) are in the South. If 30,027 PUs are to be created, using the appropriate legal requirement, RAs, it follows that 15,614 of these PUs i.e approximately 52%, should be allocated to the North and 14,413, i.e approximately 48%, should be in the 17 states of the South. This is the only legal, fair, just and equitable distribution that will be acceptable, using RAs as stipulated by law.

IN JEGA’S OWN WORDS
It would be recalled that shortly after his assumption of office, one of the early steps taken that started the process of restoration of public confidence in INEC, before the nationwide voters registration, was Jega’s declaration that it had commenced the process of verification and relocation of PUs nationwide to ensure that PUs in the homes, compounds, places like Okija Shrine, traditional rulers/emirs palaces, and places of worship were relocated to open and accessible public places.   This was commended by Nigerians who know that truly PUs were located in the premises of powerful politicians and these were used to rig elections.

After the 2011 elections, the Chairman of INEC, in his keynote address on the role of editors during elections, at the 7th All Nigerian Editors Conference (ANEC, Benin 2011), on Thursday, September 22, 2011, further confirmed what his Commission had told Nigerians when he said: “Before embarking on the registration of voters, the Commission established the exact location of PUs throughout the country and verified the number to be 199, 976 – which is 24 short of the 120,000 that was on record”.

What should be of serious concern to Nigerians is the revelation from the meeting of last Tuesday where the PUs’ proposal was suspended. At the meeting to consider reports from the states, almost all the states from the North each presented reports of  relocation of over 1,000 PUs from inappropriate locations to accessible and open places whereas the states in the South did not have such reports. There are questions Jega must, therefore, answer, in the light of this revelation:

*How do Nigerians reconcile this revelation of this new relocation of inappropriate location of PUs in the northern states if it had been done in 2011 as publicly declared by INEC as noted previously?

*Does this mean that these states did not carry out this directive prior to the 2011 elections and voting took place in those places?

*Could it be that after the 2011 elections, these thousands of PUs were returned to these inappropriate locations warranting this relocation now?

*Does the absence of such reports from the South indicate that it was carried out as at that time and there was nothing to relocate again?

*What does INEC intend to do with these revealed and identified PUs that hitherto had been in secret or inappropriate places given the suspension of the PUs creation exercise?

To now properly situate the malady in INEC’s northern flank, please read carefully Jega’s announcement of the suspension of the allocation of the 30,000 PUs: “The Commission met today and reviewed reports from the State Offices on Reconfiguration and Creation of Additional PUs. The Commission decided, in view of time constraint and the controversy over the matter that is overheating the polity, to: 1) suspend the creation of new PUs until after the 2015 general elections; 2) continue with the existing practice of using Voting Points to decongest PUs; 3) as much as possible relocate all PUs in unsuitable locations to more suitable locations and 4) ensure that as much as possible PUs in open spaces are moved to classrooms or suitable enclosures, such as tents. Formal communication will follow asap. Best regards.” Now these posers:

*If the directive to move PUs to another location is carried out just two months to election, what name shall it bear now?

*How would this change to another location be reflected on the register of voters that bears the old names?

*What happens to the PVC that bears the codes of the locations already given to voters? *What happens to those Guides to Polling Units that INEC normally gives to journalists and

election observers – would these sudden changes be reflected?

*How would voters know that their PUs have been re-located when these same apathetic voters, despite INEC’s publicity, have not responded impressively to the collection of PVC?

*Above all, except for inappropriate location of PUs, has INEC thought of the reaction of stakeholders (political parties, election monitors, journalists, et al) to this idea?

THE SUPER COMMISSIONERS INSIDE INEC

There are three National Commissioners at INEC who can be described as operating like Nigeria’s post-civil war Super Perm Secs. These three people were the ones who pushed, last Tuesday, for a hard line against RECs from the South. Their offence was that they failed to go along with and be complicit in the lopsided allocation of PUs. The suggestion was first put forward by Hajia Amina Zakari. But you need to understand these individuals:

*Engr. Nuru Yakubu
This very intelligent individual hails from Yobe State in Nigeria’s North-East. He is at the head of the team that provides the intellectual content. However, starting from failed delimitation and review of wards to the controversial lopsided allocation of the 30,000 PUs, using invidious criteria of an unexplainable ration of 85% and 15% that gave the North more, there seems to be a driving force. He is reputed to be very ambitious – there is no crime in that. But there is said to be mutual suspicion between him and Jega. INEC insiders disclosed last week to Sunday Vanguard that as close as both men are, this ambitious disposition made the Chairman not to allow him act on his behalf whenever he is not on seat. Again, it was revealed that some elders had to call both Jega and Yakubu to quench what was being perceived as a rivalry in view of the power game ahead of 2015. So far, Yakubu has done well in advancing the cause of the job he appears to be set out for at INEC.

Last Tuesday, Jega empowered him with the headship of the Committee of Logistics in addition to the Operations Committee that he heads. By this development, Yakubu is now effectively in charge of the heart and soul of the 2015 elections.

This even becomes more egregious because if a man has tried to set a template of PUs distribution in a manner that presents the impression that the North must by all means lord it over the South of Nigeria, to now hand him the responsibility of logistics, election materials and staff deployment, what guarantees are there that the same South of Nigeria would not be de-supplied election materials on election day? Worse still, the Nigerian Constitution mentions “substantial compliance” and not full compliance when issues of election disputes are taken to court. All these are happening despite the fact that Jega has no executive power but his colleagues have all surrendered to him and are treated like mere staff of INEC and not equals wherein the Chairman is just the first.

Hajia Amina Zakari
She once worked with Gen. Muhammadu Buhari at the PTF and is referred to at INEC as “Madam Know All”.
She is described as a National Commissioner who wants to do the job of everybody. This is a complement in a situation where things may appear not to be moving in the right direction.  But determining the right direction in the light of a shambling and shambolic election management body may itself be foggy. Even though she was the chair of election and political monitoring committee until last Tuesday when she was reassigned, she took charge of the recruitment exercise  carried out last year whereas she was not the head of the Human Resources Committee that led previously by Mrs. Thelma lremiren who was removed by Jega ahead of the recruitment exercise to pave the way for alleged northern control of the recruitment of new staff into INEC.

*Amb. Mohammed Wali
An ardent promoter of the previous allocation of the PUs, he never gave up until the policy was reversed last Tuesday.

JOB FOR HIRE
The further empowerment of the northern Turks to organize and control the 2015 elections creates the anxiety that this may be another phase of the project which motivated the lopsided PUs creation that has polarized the Commission along regional lines because it allocated to the North-West 7,906, the North-East 5,291, and the North-Central 6,318, while it allotted to the South-West 4,160, South-South 3,087 and South-East 1,167 and the FCT 1,120 which led to the following clear disparities:
* 11 out of the 12 states which got over 1,000 new PUs were in the North
* States such as Katsina, Kano, Niger, Kaduna and Zamfara, just like the FCT Abuja, EACH got more new PUs than the entire South-East.
* INEC  prepared new facilities for over 500,000 new voters in 11 states in the North and only Lagos in the South
* Borno and Yobe States, with over 400,000 internally displaced persons who have moved to several states in the Middle Belt and South, got 1,333 and 790 new PUs allocations, respectively, when peaceful states with larger numbers of eligible voters in the South from data used by INEC got nothing. The clear inequities, which the issue raised, led to several actions to stop the creation of the new polling units by prominent leaders in the South-West, South-East and South-South  including a challenge in court brought forward by the Unity Party of Nigeria, UPN, led by Chief Fredrick Fasheun.

Currently, it is doubtful if INEC has actually put the matter to rest to concentrate on the important issues of the Permanent Voter Cards distribution and Continuous Voters Registration process which have been bedeviled by scheduling failures.

As at the time the Commission suspended the creation of the new PUs, Jega had indicated in a national newspaper interview that the new PUs had not been created and there was no evidence to show that INEC used the reports submitted by some RECs to any effect. Today’s INEC, courtesy of Jega leadership attitude and the northern Turks around him, has become so polarized that the fairness of next year’s general election may suffer integrity discount. National Commissioners are polarized along North/South faultlines and this goes all the way to RECs, the staff, National Assembly members, and even the Senate Committee on INEC.  When the Committee sent the INEC boss a letter suggesting that the PUs allocation should be suspended, it was a few northern senators who counselled Jega to ignore the suggestion.

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